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As a result, export base was diversified to non-oil products like Petrochemicals and Aluminium whose share in GDP has gradually increased. Inspite of diversifying sources of GDP, the rates of real GDP growth have showed wide fluctuations of more than 8 percent to negative 2 percent, over the period of last ten to fifteen years.
In order to analyze the sources of fluctuations in GDP growth, a standard complete structural macro model is probably desirable. However, such a model is derived on the basis of economic theory. Thereby two major problems arise: the theory must be exact enough to identify the endogenous and exogenous variables and the functional form connecting them...
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