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We offer a new test of gambling efficiency that
evaluates the risk and return of betting strategies relative to those of alternative
investments. The method incorporates the well-documented Kelly criterion into the
current method of investigation. The home-underdog bias of NFL games is
reinvestigated with the tests indicating the bias is much less of an inefficiency than
previously reported. An additional insight provided indicates a rationale for the favoritelongshot
bias in horseracing.
Correcting for risk-adjusted returns in the test of gambling market efficiency
Mark Cuban, the flamboyant owner of the National Basketball Association's
Dallas Mavericks, in a November 27th 2004 entry in his web blog,
www...
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