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Essay text:
In
aggregate, we expect global growth ex-US to slow to 5.3% in 2007 from 5.8% in
2006, even as US growth slows to 1.7% from 3.2% (Chart 2).
There are five main reasons why we expect this global slowdown to be different
to the 2000-2001 experience:
A soft landing, not a recession, is the US base case. US consumption is not
expected to contract in coming quarters, as house price inflation decelerates,
but household wealth has been buttressed by resilient equity prices. Our US
economics group expects consumption growth to reach a low of 1.1%
annualized in 3Q07.
The world does not have direct exposure to the US housing sector...
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