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The reference class for this argument is smoking. The attribute class is lung cancer. This argument does not pass the rule of total evidence, because we are not fully informed of what else could cause "him" to actually die from lung cancer. For example we don't know of his family history, etc.
PART 2
3. Hardly any Independents receive enough votes to win.
A candidate is considering running as an independent.
______________________________________________
The candidate will not win.
The statistical premise which refers to a particular individual and the conclusion is "Hardly any Independents receive enough votes to win...
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