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The expected value of successful completion with Depression only was $36,390,000, for weight only $1,200,000 and for both $26,880,000. The expected value of failure (including failure at any phase) was ($59,490,000).
Next, I calculated the Valuations of each successful outcome using the decision tree analysis and the spectrum of outcomes with an asymetric distribution of rewards. Using the probability of 14.55%, which is the combined probability for any sucess, I recalculated the valuations of each success (Depression only, Depression only after testing for both in phase III, Weight only, etc)...
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