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In fact, this is the danger of overconfidence.
The second activity illustrates calibration. “Calibration is the degree to which confidence matches accuracy.” (Plous, 1993, p. 222) Decision makers accuracy is based on the amount of times he/she choices the correct alternative. Asking what is the probability of an answer being correct is requires that the calculation be compared against something or someone else. There may be an anchoring affect of a decision maker to think that confidence and accuracy increase at the same level. However, “when individual judgments are considered alone, we cannot adequately measure calibration...
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