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It weights the more recent periods of data more heavily in the forecast, and the weight for the older periods will decrease at an exponential rate.
The simple formula of exponential smoothing is:
F_(t+1)=?A_t+(1-?)F_t
where F_t=forecast for period t, A_t=available data for period t, and 0 < ? < 1.
2.2 Data collection
From the formula F_(t+1)=?A_t+(1-?)F_t, if it is to forecast the rail freight in 2007, then the data of year 2005 and 2006 is needed.
According to Australasian Railway Association’s Industry Report 2006 and 2007, the rail freight respectively is 189.0btk in 2005-2006 and 198...
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